There is a 50-50 chance for some tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Eric Berger reports in the Houston Chronicle that This is the same system some of the forecast models have been predicting would develop for some time, and we’re now to the point where it probably has at least a 50-50 chance to become a tropical depression. At present this remains an area of disorganized weather to the north of South America, as can be seen in the water vapor image shown below. Conditions presently are not favorable for these storms to coalesce into a tropical system.
Now moving slightly north of west, forecasters at ImpactWeather say it should turn to northwest within the next 24 to 48 hours. This will take the system toward Belize and the Yucatan on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the system is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche. Once there, and as it moves northwest toward the Texas-Mexico border, this system should find more favorable conditions for development, and there’s perhaps a 50 chance it will become a depression or tropical storm. It could bring a wet end to what’s expected to already be a wet week, beginning Monday, as moisture levels in the atmosphere rise significantly.
It’s important to note that the chances are no better than 50-50 and nothing, as of yet, has anything impacting the U.S. Gulf Coast. That being said, this is the time of year we need to pay attention to potential weather systems in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Hurricane Zone.